![]() Here's the NFL Week 16 Vegas Money Breakdown. Overall, the public went 7-6, which is a pretty even week for everyone once you factor in all the juice. Vegas was on the winning side of three of the four most lop-sided games of the week (with my 5-unit Jaguar pick being the lone exception - groan). Bills: OUT: DE Aaron Schobel (IR), OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR), CB Ashton Youboty (IR). Injuries: Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), OT Ryan O'Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, DE Ty Warren, DE/OLB Adalius Thomas (IR), ILB Tedy Bruschi (IR), CB Terrence Wheatley (IR), S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Patriots -3. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Patriots -3. New England Patriots (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8) ![]() Weather: Possible showers, 61 degrees.Ben Roethlisberger is 56-21 as a starter (45-31 ATS).Steelers are 17-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.Home Shutout: Teams coming off a home shutout are 16-7 ATS the following week since 2002 (Romeo Crennel 2-0).History: Steelers have won 16 of the last 17 meetings.Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 89% (99,000 bets).It doesn't matter how long Pittsburgh's starters will play. The Browns would love to beat their divisional rival, but how much motivation will they have against Byron Leftwich, Gary Russell and Limas Sweed? The Steelers don't need this game at all. I'm also a fan of backing the lucrative home-shutout trend, which is listed below. That's why I'm taking the Browns for a grand total of zero units. RECAP: Unless you have inside information, or something is announced later in the week, there is no way I can advocate betting on this game.Īs I said earlier, I don't want to lay 11 points if Leftwich, Russell and Sweed are on the field. But if Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Casey Hampton, and the rest of Dick LeBeau's dynamic defenders are on the bench, the Browns, who haven't managed an offensive touchdown in five weeks, actually have hope. There is absolutely no way Cleveland can score on Pittsburgh's first-string stop unit. But if Byron Leftwich, Gary Russell and Limas Sweed are in the lineup, do you really want to hope that they cover 11 points?ĬLEVELAND OFFENSE: Again, we have no idea what's going to happen. If Big Ben, Hines Ward and the rest of Pittsburgh's first-string offense plays, there's no doubt they'll trample a horrific Browns defense. It also should be noted that Tomlin didn't have a first-round bye waiting for him when he benched his players in last season's Ravens battle. On the other hand, an angry Mike Tomlin, who kicked Santa Claus out of his press conference, declared that he won't be treating this contest like a preseason game. Ben Roethlisberger also said that he could use some time off after taking a good amount of hits against the Titans. On one hand, they rested everyone in a Week 17 contest last year, and lost to a hapless, five-win Baltimore squad. We have no idea whether they're going to play their starters or not because they're locked into the No. PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Week 17 is always the toughest to predict because a handful of teams have nothing to play for. Hey, statistically, this is my worst picking year in the NFL since 2002, so this is something I need to do. ![]() In the next few weeks, I'm going to list all of this year's bad beats. If you give me the Jaguars cover, I would have won 3.5 Units. Oh, and the 4-point underdog Chiefs ruining a 31-24 second-half advantage sucked as well. Making matters even worse, Garrard came 10 yards short of a tying score, but missed a wide-open Troy Williamson in the back of the end zone. The tough one last week was watching the 6-point underdog Jaguars blow a 14-0 lead, giving the Colts a cover, thanks to a David Garrard pick-six. I may have the most bad beats this season than I've ever had since this Web site's inception in 1999. DOUBTFUL: TE Kellen Winslow Jr.* Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), OT Marvel Smith (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR). Injuries: Browns: OUT: QB Brady Quinn (IR), QB Derek Anderson (IR), WR Joe Jurevicius (IR), OT Ryan Tucker (IR), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR). Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16): Steelers -13.5. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16): Steelers -13.5. ET.Ĭleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my
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